Economic and political effects of the Ukraine war across Arab States

A regional assessment for UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Arab States and the European Commission examined the war’s economic, social and political consequences. Country analysis and a shock-exposure index connected food, energy and financial pressures with household vulnerability, policy space and programme options.

Context and purpose

UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Arab States and the European Commission needed a comparative assessment of the Ukraine war’s regional effects. The study examined how import dependence, fiscal constraints and financing risks shaped vulnerability and policy choices.

The work

Economic and political-economy analysis covered food and energy costs, inflation, financial markets and Gulf-linked finance. A seventeen-indicator Shock Exposure and Vulnerability Index complemented assessments of Somalia, Libya, Lebanon, Yemen, Tunisia and Egypt. Discussions with EU and UNDP counterparts tested findings and programming options.

Outputs and use

Country assessments, regional analysis and the vulnerability index provided a comparative evidence base for joint programming. Recommendations identified exposure, policy constraints and potential response options across different national settings.